Adm. Jon Leonard was being briefed at the offices of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command while being surrounded by a large naval and air fleet for a big- scale rehearsal for an assault.
“Over the past two decades, we have seen a substantial buildup of earth, air, and operational shipping products in the Chinese Eastern Command’s foundations,” a captain said, pointing to a large panel displaying a mass of red images enveloping the area.
The captain continued, “Accompanying the military buildup has been a ratcheting up of information operations and psychological warfare against the government and the Taiwanese populace.”
Then it was Leonard’s turn to brief his staff, and he began with a bit of Cold War history.
“In 1983, NATO undertook one of its largest ever exercises in Western Europe, called”, he recounted. The Soviet Politburo was persuaded that the exercise was a ruse for a NATO-initiated conflict with the Warsaw Pact because it was so realistic.
“When we detected the movements of joint forces, missile organizations, and logistics units earlier this year,” he continued, “we had to once again ask ourselves: is this another large- scale PLA exercise, or just a ruse to cover for a grab for Taiwan by the Chinese?”
The plot of the novel White Sun War: The Campaign for Taiwan, by retired Australian army general Gen. Mick Ryan, which depicts a war between China and the United States and its Pacific allies in 2028, is fiction.
However, the scenario is one in which China uses an unveiled exercise as cover for an invasion of Taiwan to seize it or a naval blockade to encircle it.
” With large exercises like this, the PLA gets three strategic returns,” Ryan said in a. It “normalizes large-scale activity around Taiwan, to deceive about future intentions, bullies and attempts to coerce the democratic government of Taiwan, and gives the region and the world an air of “inevitability” about its eventual takeover of Taiwan.”
” Of course, it is not inevitable”, Ryan said. The CCP, however, uses Putin’s Ukraine propaganda strategy.
The goal of the real- life military drills China conducted from May 23- 25, dubbed “Joint Sword- 2024A”, was by the Eastern Theatre Command of the People’s Liberation Army.
According to a spokesperson, “the drills focus on joint sea-air combat readiness patrol, joint seizure of comprehensive battlefield control, joint precision strikes on key targets.” They also serve as a strong punishment for the separatist acts of Taiwan’s independence forces, and as a stern warning against the interference and provocation by external forces.
The “punishment” was in reaction to the of Taiwan’s newly elected president, Lai Ching- te, who had the temerity to refer to Taiwan as” a sovereign, independent nation” while vowing his government would “neither yield to nor provoke” Beijing while seeking to “maintain the status quo” of Taiwan as a democracy.
A defense ministry spokesman, Senior Col. Wu Qian, accused Lai of “attempting to seek Taiwan independence by force” and “pushing the Taiwan compatriots towards the danger of war.”
According to Wu, “playing with fire is completely an act of burning people,” and “those who play with fire will end up getting burned.”
The United States is not required by law to defend Taiwan, but the Taiwan Relations Act requires that the self-governing island have sufficient self-defense capabilities.
But after China’s mock bombing runs, aggressive naval maneuvers, and threatening rhetoric, two U. S. congressional delegations rushed to meet with Lai to reassure him of continuing U. S. support.
“There should be no doubt, there should be no skepticism in the United States, Taiwan, or anywhere in the world, of American resolve to maintain the status quo and peace in the Taiwan Strait,” Rep. Andy Barr (R- KY), co- chairman of the Taiwan caucus, said at a news conference in the capital, Taipei.
Some members of Congress’ opposition to funding Ukraine’s defense against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked war of aggression has some Taiwan supporters fearing Beijing may come to the conclusion that the United States would be unwilling or unable to defend Taiwan if China attacks.
“I don’t want anyone to think that we can’t support Taiwan because of Ukraine”, Rep. Mike McCaul ( R- TX ), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, the New York Times. “The stuff going to Ukraine is old and it’s old NATO stuff, this is all brand- new for Taiwan.”
There is a nearly $20 billion backlog of arms sales to Taiwan approved in 2019 and 2020 and still awaiting delivery, including 66 F- 16 fighter jets.
“I just believe that our defense industrial base is overloaded right now, and it can’t handle this much conflict in the world,” McCaul said.
In Foreign Affairs, senior fellows at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Isaac Kardon and Jennifer Kavanagh, Asia scholars, stated that an invasion is not China’s preferred option.
“China’s patient, long- term Taiwan policy which treats unification as a ‘historical inevitability,’ together with its modest record of military action abroad, suggests that Beijing’s more probable plan is to gradually intensify the policy it is already pursuing: a creeping encroachment into Taiwan’s airspace, maritime space, and information space,” they argue. The United States must also get rid of its fixation on the possibility of an invasion and become more aware of the dangers posed by Taiwan’s sluggish strangulation.
In his novel, Mick Ryan gives the fabled admiral an announcement that the president has made a provocative and bold move to deter China: sending American troops to Taiwan as a tripwire.
“If they attack Taiwan, they will also be attacking American forces. The admiral explains to his staff that we are aware that the Chinese leadership believes that if they can seize the island before US intervention, the American people might not be willing to shed blood for us to retake it.”
The admiral continues, “but the president and his advisers argue that if an attack automatically endangers American service personnel, it might provide enough of a deterrent — at least for another year or two.”
In the imagined future of the book, war comes nonetheless.