A recent clash between China and Philippine‘s Coast Guard forces and the military pushed Phillipine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to invoke a mutual defense treaty, according to a former adviser.
“Beijing has already attacked to such a degree that it should trigger our mutual defense treaty response if President Marcos, in discussion with President Biden, decides that would be the best course,” said Matthew Pottinger, former White House deputy national security adviser, Tuesday at the Heritage Foundation. “I’m not saying that means we go to war. I’m saying we need to acknowledge that that is what’s happening and start imposing much more serious costs.”
Eight Philippine military personnel were injured, took place in the Spratly Islands, near a military outpost that Manila uses to resist China’s claim to sovereignty over the area. It’s the latest in a series of increasingly violent encounters, a pattern with “dire” implications that range far beyond even China’s bid for control over the South China Sea.
“It’s a dress rehearsal for Taiwan,” Pottinger said. “But what they’re doing is trying to demonstrate that they can blockade, create a sense of futility, and discredit the idea that the United States is going to help — not only the Philippines but, by extension, Taiwan. After all, the Philippines is a mutual defense treaty ally of the United States. We don’t have a formal alliance with Taiwan, so [if] Beijing can basically demonstrate that we’re feckless over this little rock … it sends a pretty dire message about Taiwan’s situation.”
Senior Chinese and Philippine officials met Tuesday in Manila to discuss the crisis.
“Noting recent incidents in the South China Sea, both sides recognized that there is a need to restore trust, rebuild confidence, and create conditions conducive to productive dialogue and interaction,” the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs said Tuesday. “The two sides discussed their respective positions on Ayungin Shoal and affirmed their commitment to de-escalate tensions without prejudice to their respective positions.”
China’s diplomatic corps struck an impenitent note in a separate commentary on the meetings.
“The root cause of the current situation is that the Philippines infringed on China’s rights and made deliberate provocations,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said Tuesday. “The Philippines needs to stop those infringement activities and provocations at once and return as soon as possible to the track of resolving differences through dialogue and consultation.”
The tensions in the South China Sea, or West Philippine Sea, as Manila prefers to call it, have festered throughout Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping’s tenure. Chinese forces have established military outposts on artificial islands in the South China Sea, far removed from the coast of mainland China, as Beijing defies an international tribunal and neighboring states to lay claim to some of the world’s busiest waterways.
Pottinger, one of the lead advisers for U.S. policy in Asia during his tenure in Trump’s administration, suggested that Washington needs to develop an array of tools to support Philippine forces in the area and punish China.
“I think there need to be military costs,” he said. “It might mean that we are working together with the Philippines to put far more capability in place on the Philippines to threaten the Chinese navy, in any contingency, not just one against the Philippines, but against the Philippines neighbors like Taiwan. It might mean a lot more in the way of economic measures … it can be things that actually take advantage of Beijing’s vulnerabilities.”